These major producers account for approximately 73 percent of total milled rice production. The majority of both rice area and production in the region emanates from Indonesia, Thailand, and Vietnam. For example the area devoted to dry season rice in Thailand, Cambodia, and Laos accounts for roughly 19, 16, and 11 percent of total rice area, respectively. Rice grown in the dry season is typically irrigated, and covers a small proportion of the total area devoted to rice in any given country. Rice is grown throughout the year during both monsoonal (rainy) and winter (non-rainy) periods. Rice farms are typically small in size, averaging from 0.5 – 2.0 hectares in total area. Total area in 2015/16 is estimated by USDA at 47.0 million hectares, of which approximately 45 percent or 21.0 million hectares are irrigated. The conclusions that can be drawn from this data point us to a general expectation for variable crop yields during El Niño’s, but not necessarily to a substantially negative outcome for the region as a whole.Īs can be seen in the map above, rice is cultivated on a widely throughout the region, with the most significant concentration of acreage in the mainland countries stretching from Burma in the west to Vietnam in the east. The reasons for this are likely related to the variation in the timing of the onset of each El Niño (which month of the year), its duration (how many crop seasons/cycles are impacted), and the geographical scope of its rain-dampening effects (which countries are affected). Not only was there a wide-range in the net positive or negative crop responses, but there appears to be no relationship between the regional crop yield response and the actual severity of the El Niño event itself. The regional-scale crop response in Southeast Asia to these 10 historical El Niño’s was quite varied, as seen in the graph above. According to NOAA, 3 strong, 5 moderate, and 2 weak El Niño episodes occurred during this 34-year period. For example, there have been 10 documented El Niño’s between 1980-2013, with an average occurrence of one every 3.5 years. Historically speaking, Southeast Asian countries have experienced significant climate-related problems associated with past El Niño’s, with Indonesia and the Philippines often experiencing deficient rainfall or drought.Įl Niño events occur on a fairly regular basis, and are each unique in the way they influence rainfall patterns and agricultural production in Southeast Asia ( ). Currently major meteorological organizations are warning that a moderate to severe El Niño event is developing in the Pacific Ocean, and these events typically influence the timing and intensity of rainfall and tropical storms in Southeast Asia. The rice varieties grown in Southeast Asia are highly sensitive to drought stress, with the greatest losses occurring when the crops are in the flowering or reproductive growth stages. Drought is the most important limiting factor influencing annual production potential, and is usually associated with an erratic or intermittent rainfall pattern which leaves crops dry for periods of weeks at a time. Rainfed rice typically makes up approximately 55% of total rice production in Southeast Asia, and is highly dependent on timely and consistent water availability in both upland and lowland paddy fields where it is cultivated. They are: Indonesia, Thailand, Vietnam, Burma, Philippines, Cambodia, Laos, and Malaysia. USDA routinely monitors actual rainfall accumulations and crop conditions worldwide, and will adjust individual country-level rice forecasts in upcoming months when warranted.Įight countries are grouped together in this analysis of Southeast Asia. It should be noted that El Niño’s have historically had both positive and negative impacts on rice yields in Southeast Asia, and therefore the current outlook from a forecast perspective is neutral. USDA is aware that international weather forecasting organizations have recently issued alerts regarding the development of an El Niño, as early rice crops are being sown throughout the region. This early forecast also includes an assumption of a near-normal rainfall pattern during the main growing period from June to October when the majority of rainfed rice is cultivated and grown. This forecast acknowledges the region’s historical pattern of annual yield growth - resulting from the gradual expansion of acreage under irrigation and improved high-yielding rice varieties. Southeast Asia: 2015/16 Rice Production Outlook at Record LevelsĪs the 2015/16 growing season gets underway in Southeast Asia, USDA is forecasting total milled rice production at a record 118.2 million tons.
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